The World Carrying Capacity

A little background …

• Today, world population is approximately 6.7 billion.
• In 1965, the population was about 3.3 billion.  Population has doubled in approx 43 years.
• In 1900, the population was about 1.7 billion.
• In 1850, it was about 1.26 billion
• In 1800, it was about .98 billion
• See the Wikipedia graph of human population

During this the most recent 100+ years, energy has been very cheap and available.

Some thoughts and questions …

• What happens when energy is more expensive, or less available?
• Agricultural output is hugely dependent upon petroleum for fertilizer and fuel.
• What will be the result on human population of reduced food production?
• As oil resources decline, are producers likely to continue exporting?  Or, might producers decide to retain the remaining resources for their own populations?

At the moment (Nov 2008) fuel prices have declined due to reduced demand.  The current, troubled,  financial environment supports a lower consumption level.  The reduced consumption is probably a short term effect until the economy improves.

My guess … without incredibly cheap and available energy resources the globe can support about 2 billion people.

How do we get there?